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UOB KAYHIAN |
UOB KAYHIAN |
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CapitaLand Ascott Trust (CLAS SP) 2H24: Portfolio Reconstitution Starting To Bear Fruit
REVPAU grew 9% yoy to S$176 in 4Q24, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 13%, driven by Japan (+37% yoy), Singapore (+15% yoy), Australia (+11% yoy) and the UK (+10% yoy). Average occupancy improved 4ppt yoy to 81%. CLAS clocked cumulative divestment gains of S$74m in 2024. Management sees a positive outlook for Australia, France, Japan and the US in 1Q25. CLAS provides a 2025 distribution yield of 6.9%. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.38.
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SEA (SE US) 4Q24 Results Preview: Growth Across All Segments, But Expect Some Forex Drag
We expect SEA to release its 4Q24 results in the first week of March. We estimate 4Q24 net profit at US$200m-210m and full-year net profit at US$407m-417m, which is 13-16% higher than our forecasts, but 15-17% lower than consensus estimates. Expect a better earnings profile from all business segments, driven by: a) a rise in take rates for Shopee, b) deeper user engagement for the gaming segment, and c) strong loanbook growth from the DFS segment. Maintain BUY. Target price: US$138.70.
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PHILLIP SECURITIES |
MAYBANK KIM ENG |
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CapitaLand Ascott Trust Growth on all cylinders
▪ FY24 DPU of 6.10 Singapore cents (-7% YoY) was in line with our FY24e estimates. Excluding one-off gains, the core DPU of 5.49 Singapore cents increased by 1% YoY, driven by stronger operating performance, acquisitions, and completed AEIs. However, this was partially offset by divestments, ongoing AEIs, higher financing costs, and the depreciation of foreign currencies against the Singapore Dollar.
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ASEAN Internet 4Q24 Preview: Robust GMV growth; margin hiccups
Strong momentum likely to sustain in 4Q24 We estimate robust Shopee and Grab GMV growth of 18% and 17% YoY, respectively, in 4Q24. This is underpinned by relatively robust macro and stable competition which in turn favours large operators. On the monetisation front, we see divergent trends with Shopee raising seller take-rates while Grab’s services are becoming affordable relative to its competitors. We see these as steps in the right direction as 1) E-commerce seller take-rates in ASEAN are on the lower side vs. the global average and 2) we earlier flagged supply/demand pressure for Grab services which it is now addressing which in turn should help to sustain GMV growth. In 4Q, we expect slight margin pressure in SE’s gaming and Grab’s mobility and fintech businesses. However, we see this as tactical and seasonal in nature and as such don’t see it as a cause of concern. We maintain our BUYs on SE and Grab with SE preferred over Grab.
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| LIM & TAN | LIM & TAN |
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Seatrium ($2.22 down 4 cents) announced that it has been awarded a contract by Japan-based Penta-Ocean Construction (POC) to carry out the engineering, procurement and construction for a 5,000-ton fullyrevolving Heavy Lift Vessel project for the Japanese offshore wind market. Seatrium’s market cap stands at S$7.6bln and currently trades at 48x forward PE and 1.2x PB and does not pay dividends. Despite a robust and strong orderwin momentum and also continued share buy backs in the open market, Seatrium’s valuations are looking fair at current levels and there is still an outstanding closure on the corruption probe into the “Operation Car Wash” by the Singaporean authorities. As such, we continue to have a “HOLD” recommendation on Seatrium.
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Keppel REIT’s (S$0.86, down 1 cent) FY 2024 property income grew 12.2% year-on-year to $261.6 million and NPI increased 10.7% to $201.9 million. The increases are due mainly to better performance at Ocean Financial Centre, T Tower and KR Ginza II, as well as contributions from 2 Blue Street and 255 George Street. The Attributable NPI for the portfolios in Singapore, Australia and North Asia also continued to show growth. At 86 cents, Keppel REIT is capitalized at S$3.3 billion and trades at 0.7x book and 6.5% yield. Bloomberg 1 year consensus target price of $1.02 implies a potential upside of 18.6%. We maintain an “Accumulate” rating on Keppel REIT given its resilient fundamentals, reasonable valuations and it being a beneficiary of the ongoing rate cutting cycle. |
