Final DPS could be reduced
Keppel has kept its annual dividend payout ratio at close to or above 40%
of reported net profit (including revaluations and divestments) over the
past 13 years. Based on our EPS forecast of S$0.80 and a 40% payout
ratio, total DPS would be S$0.32, below the consensus expectation of
S$0.41 and implying a yield of 6.2%. To maintain a total DPS of S$0.48,
the payout ratio would have to be raised to 60% from 46% in 2014.
Maintain NEUTRAL.
Keeping an eye on CITY DEVELOPMENTS $7.33. Target $12.00.
Adding City Developments to CS AxJ Focus List
We believe multiple catalysts lie ahead for CDL, with upside likely to be driven by:
(1) further asset divestments to unlock portfolio value, (2) upside
surprise on dividends in its FY15 results, (3) re-inclusion into the
FTSE EPRA/NAREIT index in mid-2016, and (4) tweaking of
Singapore residential policy measures in 2H16.
We believe CDL has demonstrated a willingness and ability to monetise its assets, with
another c.S$4.7 bn of assets which could potentially be monetised.
Following the second PPS deal, there could also be upside surprise
on its FY15 dividends. CDL is also best positioned for a turnaround in
the Singapore residential market sentiment in 2016. We believe
valuations are attractive at 43% discount to RNAV and 0.8x P/B.