PREDICTING STOCK prices – even those stocks with apparently good prospects and financials – can turn out to be a near-futile exercise for many people.
Analysts often don’t get it right, and neither have NextInsight readers who tried their hand at forecasting the end-March 2011 prices of their favourite stocks in late December and early January this year.
At that time, the stock market was red-hot bullish with the Santa Claus rally and Lunar New Year rally but then came the Black Swan – the Japanese triple disasters of a magnitude never imagined.
Before that, global funds were withdrawing from emerging markets including Asia.
Ok, forget the gore. Let’s look at the top 3 stocks among those that 20 NextInsight readers had forecasted (URL links to their postings are given at the bottom of this story).
* ‘Ultroman’ picked Foreland Fabrictech – this textile play, which is an S-chip, has triumphed amidst the bad-mouthing of S-chips currently.
Foreland has moved up from 9.5 cents when it was picked by 'Ultroman' to 12 cents for a 26.3% gain. Congrats!
* ‘MacGyver’, whose postings in our forum are favourite readings of readers, picked Techcomp Holdings, which manufactures and distributes scientific equipment.
This has proven to be a rock-steady counter during the 1Q market turbulence, moving up from 40.5 cents to 47.5 cents for a 17.3% gain.
We don't know much about MacGyver himself but in his various postings he has alluded to having made a tonne of money in stocks through the years.
* ‘Morpheus’, another well-followed poster, picked Bright World Precision Machinery, which manufactures stamping machines for a wide range of industries such as auto and electronics.
The counter rose from 49.5 cents to 57 cents for a 15.2% gain.
Congrats to all three – they will receive an i-Ball each, courtesy of Trek 2000, the inventor of the gadget. We will be emailing them to come and collect the gadget.
The 2Q looks less buoyant – and while we are not organizing another similar stock competition, we wish you all the best in your investing. Who knows, 2Q could yet spring a sweet surprise – really, the market is essentially an unpredictable creature.
Check out the readers’ postings of their stock picks at forum threads one, and two and three.
Recent stories on the 3 stock picks of Ultroman, MacGyver and Morpheus:
CHINA GAOXIAN, FORELAND, CHINA FIBRETECH, TAISAN: What CIMB found out....
TECHCOMP: US fund manager, major shareholder shares insights with analysts
BRIGHT WORLD: Stellar growth, continued dividend payout expected this year
